Gas at 180.9¢ and Diesel Near a Record: Pump Prices Are Pushing Canadians Toward EVs

Canadian drivers watching the pump counter climb this week got a two-sided forecast from one of the country's best-known fuel analysts — and a growing number of them are responding by shopping for electric and hybrid vehicles instead.

Dan McTeague, head of Canadians for Affordable Energy, tells CP24 that after a one-cent bump overnight, Toronto-area gasoline will fall to 180.9 cents per litre by Friday, with a further seven-cent drop expected around Sept. 17 when refiners switch to a cheaper winter gasoline blend. But relief at the gas pump comes alongside a warning: diesel is set to rise nine cents to 245.9 cents per litre on Friday, continuing what McTeague calls a "record-setting pace."

The year-over-year comparison is stark. At the same time last year, gasoline sold for 143.9 cents a litre in the GTA and diesel hovered around 153.9 cents — meaning diesel has climbed by roughly 92 cents a litre, a near doubling that McTeague says "will undoubtedly fuel inflation throughout the entire economy."

CP24: demand for EVs and hybrids is growing as fuel climbs

Against that backdrop, CP24 reported Wednesday that rising gas prices are pushing Canadians to move away from gas-powered vehicles, with the outlet's automotive coverage pointing to growing demand for electric and hybrid vehicles as oil and fuel prices continue to climb.

It's a dynamic Canadian EV watchers have seen building all year. Gasoline's earlier price spike helped push Canada's inflation rate back up to 3 per cent in August, Statistics Canada reported — a reminder that pump prices ripple through the whole cost-of-living picture, not just the commute.

What the gap means in dollars

For a driver doing the EV math, the spread between 180.9¢ gasoline and home electricity is the whole story. A typical gasoline compact burning 8 L/100 km pays roughly $14.50 per 100 km at current GTA prices. Charging an efficient EV at Ontario off-peak rates costs a fraction of that — before any public-charging mix is added — and our province-by-province charging cost calculator lets you run the comparison for your own rate plan and mileage.

Source: Dan McTeague, Canadians for Affordable Energy, as reported by CP24 on Sept. 9, 2026.

The Sept. 17 swing — and why winter blend matters

The seven-cent drop McTeague forecasts for around Sept. 17 reflects the seasonal switch to winter-grade gasoline, which is cheaper to produce than the summer blends that limit evaporation in hot weather. It's a real reprieve — but it lands on top of a price level that is already roughly 26 per cent higher than last year for gasoline, and nearly double for diesel. Freight costs tied to diesel tend to pass through to shelf prices, which is why the diesel figure worries inflation watchers more than the gasoline one.

The Canadian context

Fuel-price pressure is arriving just as Canada's EV incentive map shrinks and reshuffles — the federal EVAP rebate is active but steps down each year, and several provinces have ended their programs: Statistics Canada's Q2 data showed ZEV market share holding at 10.7 per cent, flat quarter-over-quarter. Analysts have debated all year whether pump prices or policy do more to move buyers — but with gasoline up 37 cents a litre year-over-year and diesel near records, the economic case for switching is being written at the pump, one fill-up at a time.

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Related: Hybrid Registrations Up 39.5%, Battery Electric Up 37.4% as Oil Passes US$100 — StatsCan · Ottawa Extends Gas Tax Holiday Into 2027 — Here's What the Phase-In Means for Canadian Drivers · EV vs Gas Total Cost of Ownership Canada 2026: Full Comparison